![]() ![]() The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,Īnd RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.Ĭollege Basketball 2022-2023 Div I games only through games of 2023 March 10 Friday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE= 1 Houston = 92.05 30 2 75.48( 94) 2 1 | 7 1 | 92.84 1 | 93.00 1 | 91.26 2 AMER. More pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend. The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASEDĪnd thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games. PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWLĪnd is a very good PREDICTOR of future games. The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters. Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actuallyĭifferent when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic. Rating's CURRENT top 25 and CURRENT top 50 respectively. Schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings The home edge will vary during the season. In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would beįavored by 6 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90. The teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 4 points for the home To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of Is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings. Into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes Of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games Hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50% ![]() The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a RATINGS, WON-LOSS records, and SCHEDULE strengths are based SOLELY This output has one part: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom Predictions_with_Totals just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of fileĬOLLEGE BASKETBALL 2022-2023 through results of 2023 MARCH 10 FRIDAY All Contents Copyright © 2023 Jeff Sagarin tm. ![]()
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